Cold War I and Grand Strategy

The world consists of roughly two hundred nation-states. Based on what we have learned earlier, the world will likely descend into a dystopian Hobbesian world if left alone [1]. Generally speaking, however, the situation is not so dire. Most nations have developed political and religious institutions before being integrated into the world. International relations study aims to establish a world order and relevant institutions to avoid chaos, conflicts, and wars. Integration into the world can also be beneficial, such as improving trade relations, facilitating economic development, etc. Earlier write-ups [2,3] have shown that perpetual peace is not achievable. Between a dystopian world and perpetual peace, many possibilities exist. The challenge is to find pragmatic paths to a relatively stable, secure, and prosperous world. Note that the solution is not a specific one but one among many. 

In [4], I reviewed international relations after WWII. This period may be divided into: the Cold War era (between 1945 and 1991) and the era from 1991 till now. At the start of the Cold War, George F. Kennan played a key role in drafting a grand strategy for the Cold War. Two good history books on the Cold War are Jeremy Issacs, Cold War: An Illustrated History, 1945-1991 [5] and John Lewis Gaddis, The Cold War: A New History [6]. In addition, transnational and international institutions established after WWII increased corporations and reduced tensions. Another important factor is that although America never had monopolistic power in the sense of Hobbes, America was much stronger politically, economically, and militarily when compared with other powers. The grand strategy and the above factors helped to prevent wars among major powers during the Cold War. 

After the Cold War, the political landscape has been changed, thus the old grand strategy was no longer applicable. Before designing a new grand strategy, a good understanding of American history is needed. Henry Kissinger’s book is a starting place [7]. The first settlers in America envisioned America as a city on the hill in the biblical sense. I will not elaborate on the evolution of this vision but mention the critical contributions of the 28th President Woodrow Wilson. He claimed“The world must be made safe for democracy.”(details in [8]). However, this vision is not pragmatic. There are three problems with this vision. First, in 1989 Francis Fukuyama published his work, The End of History [9]. As argued in [1-3] this is not practical (at least not in many centuries). Another is democratic transitions. As explained earlier, most studies on democratic transitions do not consider religion. Religion can be a major obstacle to democratic transition. Almost all religions lead to political institutions and many are incompatible with democratic principles. As a result,  some American policies in world politics are ill-conceived. 

The third problem is America’s policy toward China. China is a great country and plays a key role in world politics. Some international relations scholars, such as Hans J. Morgenthau, suggest that America should not help China to become a rival power. My viewpoint is that this depends. In the past, two key judgmental errors had been made. First, most scholars consider the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) fundamentally different from the Soviet Communist Party. This is wrong. China studies in the US are strongly influenced by John King Fairbank. But despite Fairbank’s lifelong work, he NEVER understood the nature of CCP. China scholars after him for generations followed his line of thinking. John King Fairbank and George F. Kennan are in sharp contrast. Kennan was a middle-level diplomat but took less than two years to see through the nature of  Russia/Soviet Union.  Fairbank did not understand the nature of the CCP and China’s politics in his lifelong study. Also prominent historian William McNeill, despite not specializing in China study, had a much better characterization of China under CCP [10]. 

So a confluence of factors led to America having no clear grand strategy. The world becomes more dangerous. Many experts warn us of danger, e.g. [11,12]. Several scholars saw the coming of Cold War II [13,14]. A well-known author David E. Sanger is writing a new book, New Cold Wars [15]. 

References: 

[1] Is a World Order Possible? (jiahan1.wixsite.com) 

[2] Will All Nations Be Secular Democracies? (jiahan1.wixsite.com)

[3] Perpetual Peace? (jiahan1.wixsite.com)

[4] Basics of Today’s International Relations (jiahan1.wixsite.com) (3-19-2024) 

[5] Jeremy Issacs, "Cold War: An Illustrated History, 1945-1991,"Taylor Downing,  Little Brown and Company; 1st ed edition 1998.   

[6] John Lewis Gaddis, "The Cold War: A New History," Penguin, 2006. Dedicated to Kennan. 

[7] Henry Kissinger, "World Order," Penguin Books, 2015. 

[8] "The world must be made safe for democracy. Its peace must be planted upon the tested foundations of political liberty. We have no selfish ends to serve. We desire no conquest, no dominion. We seek no indemnities for ourselves, no material compensation for the sacrifices we shall freely make."—Woodrow Wilson on the State of War with Germany during an Address to Congress. April 2, 1917.

[9] Francis Fukuyama, "The End of History and the Last Man," Free Press, February, 2006. (The book was expanded from his earlier 1989 paper) 

[10] 韩家亮：法西斯、共产党、和儒教 http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=32280 and references therein. 

[10] Patriotism, Leadership, and Western Security | Alexander Downer (5-24)

[11] Steve Forbes' Warning: The Winds Of War Are Gaining Gale Force (7-2024) 

[12] Cold War II: Niall Ferguson Emerging Conflict W China | Uncommon Knowledge (4-2023) 

[13] Niall Ferguson in seminar at UATX: Cold War II (3-2024) 

[14] David E. Sanger, New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West Hardcover – 1 January 2099【译丛】从一场冷战到多场冷战 - 议报