Implications of Trump-Vance Ticket
- Jia Han
- Jul 22, 2024
- 5 min read
Initially, I did not spend time on the Republican VP selection because normally VP is only a ceremonial position. I also knew little of J.D. Vance. After he was chosen as Trump’s running mate, I started to spend time getting to know J.D. Vance. The more I learn about him, the more important this selection seems to be (links in the references indicate this) and J.D. Vance will play an important but unknown role in the future Trump Administration. We might know more soon, perhaps before Trump takes office. This selection potentially has several implications. First, Trump’s second term might have quite different goals from his first term (one video said that Wall Street was stunned by Vance’s acceptance speech). Second, I thought I knew Trump sufficiently well (I wrote Trump as US President? days ago). I was wrong. This will become clearer later. Third, I may have to rethink future US domestic politics, economic policies, and international relations. Fourth, these might impact investment strategies, which is one reason I bring this write-up forward.
Potential VP candidates
USA Today gave a list of potential candidates: Greg Abbott | Katie Britt | Doug Burgum | Tucker Carlson | Ben Carson | Tom Cotton | Byron Donalds | Tulsi Gabbard | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Kari Lake | Nancy Mace | Kristi Noem | Vivek Ramaswamy | Marco Rubio | Tim Scott | Elise Stefanik | Marjorie Taylor Greene |JD Vance | Glenn Youngkin. I knew some (I do not spend time on such topics). One thing strikes me: many highly qualified candidates on the Republican side. Among the above list, Doug Burgum, Ben Carson, Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Tusi Gabbard (former Democrat now independent), Sarah Huckabee Sander, Vivek Ramaswamy, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, Glenn Youngkin are either well-known, good match, or extraordinary achievement (Tim Scott, J.D. Vance, Ben Carson). On the other hand, Democrats have only a few qualified presidential candidates. Why? My guess is it’s ossified left-leaning ideology including DEI.
Consideration of American VPs usually expands the appeal of a ticket or voter base. For example, Reagan chose Bush because Reagan was from the right wing of the Republican Party while Bush was from the left wing. (LBJ probably had similar considerations.) Biden chose Kamala Harris due to appealing to black and female voters. Trump selected Mike Pence in his first term to appeal to Christians (especially evangelicals). All these try to be as broadly appealing as possible. Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance is puzzling because Vance is, as many said, a little MAGA. Trump apparently takes MAGA more seriously than I thought.
Why did Trump choose Vance?
JD Vance was largely unknown to me. I heard briefly when he ran for senator about two years ago. There were reported controversies then such as denouncing Donald Trump as today’s Hitler. I knew that I could not trust the news media. Like Ian Bremmer said (see below), the news media often take things out of context since they always look after their interests (i.e. attention). Nevertheless, even considering this Trump’s selection seems out of his character. Vance is a convert of MAGA. MAGA is a slogan Trump chose in his first term. Trump had many choices. Why did he select a convert with the previous colorful attack language? What gives?
Let us see what other top-rate commentators say. The foreign editor of The Australian (the main world media in Australia) commented that this was a bad selection (considering the above ‘rule’). Some commentaries in the US media also said similar things. Kim Strassel (a highly respected columnist for WSJ) thinks that Trump was confident that he would win so he selected one based on his agenda. I think she is right. You have to respect Trump’s political instinct. Recall he ordered the assassination of Iranian general Soleimani. It was justified because Soleimani was the head of many terrorist organizations in the Middle East. Nevertheless, it was a high risk gamble. Many other decisions Trump made were based on his instinct.
Trump could have chosen someone else to get more votes. When he comes to power, he could adopt his first-term policies, maybe with some variations. By choosing Vance, Trump is more ambitious. It is hard to say exactly what policies Trump will adopt. This already caused uneasiness on Wall Street (see references).
Investment Strategy
One reason that I write this piece is to comment on investment strategy. Note that Vance’s acceptance speech caused a shock on Wall Street. Initially many tried to factor in Trump’s return to the White House. Vance’s speech stunned them because it contained populism toward Wall Street. Trump always has populism leaning. However, in his first term, his populism was limited to politics while his economic policies were traditional Republican. It is uncertain now.
The above uncertainty could cause gyrations and rotations in the stock market. Such shocks may happen back and forth a few times. If you invest only in the SP500 Index or the like, you need not worry. For QQQ (Nasdaq), it is more complicated because new policies may affect AI, deficits, and others. As for AI itself, I might update my view after this earning season.
References:
J.D. Vance, Who?
*Who is J.D. Vance? (7-17) (WSJ opinion usually high quality. )
Policies
ND Governor Doug Burgum Trump-Vance ticket, GOP economic agenda U.S. deficit (7-17)
J.D. Vance on Globalization (7-16)
Related: (earlier writeup references and other related)
[5] How The Deep State Took Down Trump (7-12)
"Thank God For X": Rep. Byron Donalds and Megyn Kelly on the New Media Environment Helping Americans
Assassination?
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