Outcome of Trade War? (2)

The original title of this write-up is: China Could Win the Trade War (2). I was concerned that many US commentators did not consider that the US and China have different dynamics and goals [1-3]. After Bill O'Reilly was interviewed by Jillian Michaels [4], the case was largely decided: the US will win. This, of course, depends on how win is defined. This video is high-quality and I strongly recommend. (Incidently, it covers other current affairs, such as Putin, Immigrant deportation, and others.) As I said before, Bill O'Reilly is the best reporter out there. But he puts up many videos every day, most people do not have time to view them all. Jillian Michaels is a good reporter, she knows how to ask the right questions. 

Trump does not want to offend Xi but wants to rectify China-US trade problems. According to former (Trump 1.0) Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Trump 1.0 tried all methods but could not get China to the negotiating table. Finally, after threatening with tariffs, China agreed to talk. Thus, this trade war is largely predestined. [3] explains that motivations and dynamics are different for the two sides. 

References: 

[1]  Trump’s Tariffs Change World Trading System 

[2] Tariffs: A Theoretical Understanding 

[3] US-China Trade War (1)

[4]**Bill O’Reilly REVEALS Trump’s Next Move in the Global Tariff War! (4-17)  

[5] On GPS: How Beijing is ‘digging in’ on the US-China trade war | CNN (4-13) 

[6] On GPS: The spillover effects of a US-China trade war | CNN (4-13) 

[7] Fed Chair Powell sent the right message on inflation, Goldman Sachs' Robert Kaplan (4-17) 

[8] Bond market malfunction is the only way Fed will cut soon, Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian (4-17)  

[9] Bill O'Reilly: Trump has never misled me, has several tariff deals done | On Balance (4-15) 

[10]Watch 'Shark Tank' Legend Destroy Host’s Narrative w/ Facts in Only 1 Minute (4-15) 

[11] Tariffs War: Roubini Says China Has Lots of Options to Counter Trump (4-15) 

[12] Trump adm. needs to 'identify end game' with tariffs: Partners Group's Charles Dallara (4-16)

[13] On GPS: How Beijing is ‘digging in’ on the US-China trade war | CNN

[14] China doubles down on tariff stance, demands U.S. abolish tariffs (4-15)  

[15] China won't weaponize U.S. Treasury market in their first move, China Beige Book's Shehzad Qazi (4-15)  

Related Further References: 

• Is the US moving closer to a deal in trade negotiations with China? (5-3) Matt Pottinger

• Trump's Trade Wars and the Decline in U.S. GDP (WSJ op 5-3)  

• Surprised If China Tariffs Don’t Change: Stephen Miran (5-3)  

• Kevin O’Leary warns of ‘pattern’ with China that people should be ‘aware of’ (5-3)  

• Major US tech company flees China to dodge Trump tariffs (5-3)  

• China is in ‘a lot’ of economic trouble, Charles Payne warns (5-3)  

• This would be ‘devastating’: Treasury Sec. Bessent updates on China tariff deal (5-2) 

• Is China being pushed to the negotiating table with the US? (5-1)  

• Reporter Stunned When Trump Advisor Explains How China Is Cornered (5-1)  

• China banking on Trump folding in trade war and doing a deal: Beige Book COO (5-1) 

• Time is running out lessening of tariffs on China, JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos (4-30)

• Who Blinked First - Trump or China's Xi? (4-30) 

• China threshold for pain a lot higher than ours, Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Rep. (4-29)  

• Mixed messaging continues on U.S.-China trade talks (4-29) 

• Xi Jinping and Donald Trump relationship analyzed by Jeffrey Wasserstrom (4-26) 

• Kyle Bass on U.S.-China trade war: The pain is much greater on their side than... (4-26) 

• Treasury Secretary Bessent Just Revealed The USA's Grand Masterplan. (4-26) 

• *Nicholas Burns on U.S.-China: Neither economy can sustain a trade war like this (4-26)   

• China doesn't want to admit this, foreign policy expert claims (4-26)  

• China hawk predicts country will 'back off' on tariff war over this (4-16) 

• China's About to Learn a Hard Lesson (4-16) (detailed explanation) 

• 【译丛】美国如何失去世界制造业强国的地位？ - 议报 (WSJ) 

• The U.S. dollar's decline is well overdue, says Bannockburn's Marc Chandler (4-16) 

• Avoid U.S. dollar, 'dramatic' asset allocation shift underway, currency expert Jens Nordvig (4-15)

• On GPS: Can tariffs bring back manufacturing? | CNN Politics 

• Jamie Dimon urges US to engage with China | FT (4-16)  

• CUT DEBT NOW OR FACE ECONOMIC HEART ATTACK | RAY DALIO (4-14)  

• Bessent on Trade Talks, Powell Future, Argentina, Dollar (4-15)  

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talks tariffs, taxes, and concerns about an economic slowdown (4-16) 

• Don't expect the usual V-shape economic recovery, says Trivariate's Adam Parker (4-16)   

• Trump’s Leadership & Tariff Tactics — Bill Breaks It Down | April 14, 2025

• Trump vs. China: Who Will Hurt More? (4-14) 

WSJ 

The tariff reversal was classic Trump. He took a drastic action, kept a close eye on the reaction, kept advisers and allies guessing and then changed course. To get Trump to where he was ready to roll back a major element of his tariff plan for 90 days, it took a Wall Street meltdown and a sustained campaign by executives, lawmakers, lobbyists and foreign leaders—and critical consultation with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.