Understand Iran War (1)

So far, Trump has handled the Iran War correctly. On the military front, the U.S. has been outstanding. However, the mainstream media is not objective. Gerard Baker’s commentary in WSJ [1] ridiculed both sides: some had a gloomy view of the war, while others exaggerated the winning angle.  (See excerpts below) 

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So it comes as no surprise that less than a month into the latest war, almost everyone seems certain not only about the outcome of the war, but about what it means for decades to come.

Last week the Economist, a publication with a long and spotty track record of declarative certitude in the face of unpredictability, announced that the war was an American failure. “A month of bombing has achieved nothing,” its cover thundered.

The academy is on the same page. Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, insists the war is a “longtime disaster” and the “most catastrophic failure of air power we have ever seen.”

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There is no less confidence on the other side. Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private-equity firm Apollo, dismissed the war’s alarming fallout in commodity, equity and bond markets, and said it would “ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics.”

Marc Thiessen, a speechwriter for President George W. Bush (whose administration isn’t especially noted for the accuracy of its observations) and now a columnist for the Washington Post, said on Fox News that President Trump’s war would go down as “possibly the greatest military campaign . . . since the American Revolution.” Move over, Dwight D. Eisenhower; step aside, Ulysses S. Grant.

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The reality is somewhere in between. 

Many experts agree that the War on Iran has three goals:

1. Get rid of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. 

2. Stop Iran’s support of terrorist activities in the Middle East region.  

3. Destroy or cripple the Iranian navy, air force, and defense industrial base to ensure they cannot attack US or regional forces.

A quick view shows that #3 is largely done. It is unclear whether #1 is accomplished. Even though getting rid of Iran’s nuclear projects was the main goal of the 12-day war (carried out last June by Israel and the US), some enriched uranium was probably moved before the attack. I paid close attention to this goal this time. There is no clear evidence one way or the other. 

Why is preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons important? Because the Iranian regime is the ONLY regime that will not hesitate to use nuclear bombs. In fact, it is almost a certainty that it will. One needs to understand Islam. According to some interpretations of Islam, Muslims will be rewarded with paradise if they kill infidels. If you have doubts about Islamists’ brutalities, go check Oct.7 and  ISIS atrocities. Throughout history, you will find few as cruel as they are. 

Furthermore, the Republic of Iran was established after the Islamic Revolution. Its theme is that the previous regime deviated from Islamic principles. Since the revolution, their slogans have been: “Death to Israel! Death to America!” Islamists are serious about this. 

References: 

Gerard Baker WSJ 3-30 You May Already Have Won the Iran War