Trump vs. Putin

The situation of the Russia-Ukraine war is changing so fast that it is hard to keep track. A little over a week ago, we were anxious to anticipate the Trump-Putin summit. After the Alaska meeting, Trump invited Zelensky to Washington for a talk about a possible peace treaty with Russia. European leaders, as well as the EU leader and the NATO Secretary General, also came. Peace seems not only possible but also likely. A few days later, the expectation of peace cools off due to further requests from Russia. Below, I attempt to make sense of these developments. 

First, let us view at the top-level, i.e., the new world order. As mentioned in my previous write-ups, the old liberal world order must be abandoned. A new grand strategy is needed [1]. Trump does not have a written doctrine, but he seems to have a reasonable strategy. Trump wants to resolve conflicts in Europe and the Middle East (i.e., Ukraine, Iran, Palestine) first, then turn to the Asia-Pacific. This is why he spent quite a lot of time and energy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in his first six months. 

During last year’s US election, Trump had a telephone conversation with Putin. No one knew the exact content of the phone conversation, but Trump promised to achieve peace in Ukraine in 24 hours. Of course, no one expects to stop fighting in one day. But few expect this conflict to be so difficult to solve. It is not the first time that Putin has fooled a US president: G W Bush, Obama, and Biden. Trump maintained a working relationship with Putin during his first term. (Trump’s political adversaries tried to paint Trump as one who likes autocrats because he himself is an autocrat. This is wrong. You have to work with leaders of other nations, even bad ones. Calling names, such as Biden did on Putin, MbS, is dangerous.) The problem is that Putin is in a war he started, and because of that, he is a different person than in Trump 1.0. Putin’s goal is his survival. One important factor in the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the Afghanistan war. Russia has now lost several times more soldiers than it did in Afghanistan. Putin had to show some results to Russian people, which he cannot get if he stops the war now. This makes things quite difficult and dangerous. 

Trump has not applied maximum pressure so far. I think he has his reasons. First, he would like to give Putin a way out. Russia has more nuke missiles than the US. As I wrote earlier, Putin might use them. Even if Putin uses only one tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine, it will create enormous problems for Trump and other European leaders. (Bill O'Reilly also pointed out that Putin may use nukes.) Second, he knows that China is a bigger challenge for the US than Russia. He cannot devote too much of his capital to Russia. Third, if he can resolve the Russia-Ukraine war quickly, he can put efforts and resources into other theaters. Fourth, the more deterrence the US has over China, the less likely conflicts would turn into kinetic. Fifth, Trump cannot and should not abandon Ukraine without some truce/peace arrangement, like Biden did in Afghanistan, because that would greatly reduce America’s deterrence. Loss of deterrence was the main reason that Putin invaded Ukraine, and Iran instigated the attacks on Israel. 

So, now the focus is on Trump vs. Putin.  

References: 

1. A Grand Strategy for Cold War II 

More References: 

1. President Trump is absolutely committed to the peace process, Ambassador Crowley says 

2. *Israel-Gaza Update, Levin on Leadership & GOP Outraises Dems | August 19, 2025  

3. *Ex-KGB agent shares insight into Putin’s mindset ahead of possible Zelenskyy meeting (8-20) 

4. Marjorie Taylor Greene: America Shouldn't Get Involved in "Security Guarantees" Ukraine (8-20) (isolationism is a big part of Trump’s base, does not want any foreign military involvement.)

5. Gen. Wesley Clark: Don't understand why Zelenskyy is demanding a meeting with Putin 

6. *Bill O'Reilly: 'Putin Would Use Nukes' (8-20)  

7. Gen. Keane: Can’t overstate SIGNIFICANCE of what we just witnessed  

8. Finland president describes mood during White House meeting with Zelensky (8-19) 

9. *If the world lines up against him, Putin 'will die': Bill O'Reilly | On Balance (8-19) 

10. *There is ‘no evidence’ Putin wants a peace deal, former CIA station chief argues (8-19) (all star panel.) 

11. Trump Meets Zelenskyy & Europe, Troitskiy on Putin Summit & Bill Barr on Epstein | 8-18, 2025  

12. Mike Pompeo: Trump sees through all of this (8-19)  

13. Levin: Putin is in ‘deep, deep trouble’ (8-19)  

14. *Gen. Keane on Zelenskyy's 'vast improvement' in Oval Office meeting (8-19) 

15. Gen Dana Pittard: Russia should not be rewarded for its aggression against Ukraine' (8-19)  

16. *Trump envoy reveals new details on Trump-Putin summit: It's 'EPIC' what we achieved (8-18)  

17. *Rubio sets the record straight on where Trump stands with Putin's demands (8-18)  

18. Is Putin Winning Against Trump? | Charlie Rose Global Conversation with Angela Stent (8-18)