Can Taiwan Be Defended?

I have written a series about the restart of the Cold War or CW2 ([1,2] and references quoted). The Cold War would not have won had a good grand strategy not been drafted. For an authoritative history of the Cold War, see [3,4]. When writing [4], I was confident that a good Grand Strategy had been proposed, and Trump’s strategy seems OK.   

About 6 months ago, 龙应台 published a commentary in the NY Times (see references in “Defence of Taiwan”). She called for negotiation with the CCP. I was shocked. Many years ago, she published a book recounting the ‘liberation war’ in which the PLA’s tactics were almost terrorist. Now she is calling for negotiation? I wrote a short write-up (see below). My point was that unless the Taiwanese are determined to fight for their own freedom, no defence will work. 

Since then, there has been further development. Japanese new PM Sanae Takaichi, when asked, said that Japan will act if Taiwan is invaded. This answer, in fact, is within Japanese law and did not constitute a new policy. However, previous Japanese PMs never made this point clear. From reports, Trump tries to calm all sides. Some comment that Trump wants his trip to Beijing next year. This is a developing story. It is hard to know the outcome. From what I know, Trump will not send the US army to defend Taiwan, but can arm Taiwan’s defence. 

References:

1. Trump’s World Order (1)

2. A Grand Strategy for Cold War II 

3. John Lewis Gaddis, "The Cold War: A New History," Penguin, 2006.  

4. **Why the Cold War Still Matters with John Lewis Gaddis (11-20-2025)

5. *China demands Japan clarify Taiwan stance as tensions escalate (11-28) 

6. 雨村：鄙视国民党，同情国民党  

7. Trump to Meet Xi in China; Americans Split on Venezuela Nov. 25, 2025 

8. Why China Is Threatening Japan (11-24)  

9. Japan to Deploy Missiles to Island Near Taiwan: Minister (11-26)  

10. All Eyes on Japan and China Tensions After Taiwan Remark | Big Take (11-26)  

11. Hal Brands, Bloomberg 11-24 Taiwan Has Reached Its Tipping Point 

Defence of Taiwan 

(I did not post this because I was waiting for further major development, which never came) 

Top international relations strategist Walter Russell Mead recently gave an interview [1]. This interview is a must-watch for anyone interested in international relations. After WWII, the US and the West tried to establish a rule-based world order. Now, Donald Trump has retreated from the previous world order. Some may still try to defend the current order, but as I discussed in [2], such an effort is hopeless. 

What are the main differences between the old World Order and the new? The old world order requires the community of nations to maintain certain rules. The new world order has different priorities. At present, maintaining peace, or at least the status quo, in the Middle East and defending Taiwan are more important than defending Ukraine. Defending Taiwan is very important to the US [3-4], which Niall Ferguson agrees with. However, Ferguson also considers defending Ukraine equally important. The Trump Administration puts defending Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific as its top priority. Niall Ferguson suspects that weak American power is behind this policy [5]. That could be a partial consideration. 

American military power has too many interests to defend. From a military perspective, Taiwan is hard to defend due to its geography and distance. But even if the American military can win two wars, it is still better to deter than to fight. By concentrating on the defence force in one theatre, deterrence is stronger. 

Since Trump does not talk openly about his doctrines (and he might act from his instinct, which means he does not have a well-defined strategy), we have to reason from what we know. Water Russell Mead’s analysis is important, as is Elbridge Colby’s [1]. 

However, in Trump’s view, Taiwan is more important than Ukraine. In fact, much more important if Mead’s analysis is correct. It looks like Trump considers the Asia-Pacific critically important. Even early in the Obama Administration, the pivot to Asia-Pacific had been the US strategy. However, little has been done under Obama. Importantly, Trump nominated Elbridge Colby to be DoD’s assistant secretary of Strategy and Force Development. Colby was the person who drafted the DoD’s 2018 paper on the Great Power struggle. His hearing had met some hesitation because he considered Ukraine not critical to American long-term strategic interests. Elbridge Colby’s thinking may be found in [10-15]. I believe that his view is close to Trump’s 

The defence of Taiwan is important for several reasons, which are explained in [3,4]. Has Taiwan always been part of China, as the CCP claims? The real answer is no. Two books [5,6] have the history of Taiwan. [7-9] are related articles I wrote in Chinese. However, those who know international relations know that historical facts and international law do not always determine real-world problems. There are many real-world examples of this. [10-14] give some info on  Elbridge Colby and his strategy. 

What is shocking is a former minister, 龙应台, who advocated negotiation with the CCP [16]. She was a cultural minister in an earlier Nationalist Government. I would not have known her had I not read some chapters of her book. During the civil war (1946-49) between the Communists and Nationalists. The Communist Army starved tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers to death, and used civilians as human shields. Maybe the CCP is better than terrorists such as ISIS, but not much. A writer who knows the history of the CCP advocates negotiating with the CCP. What is the hope of defence? I watched Erik Prince’s new war strategy [17]. Initially, I thought that it was interesting. He applied what he learned from the Ukraine-Russia war to adapt it for Taiwan. But the fundamental problem is that Ukraine and its people are willing to fight. If they are not willing to fight, no strategy can work. Just compare Afghanistan and Ukraine. Most Afghanistan people did not want to fight, while many Ukrainian people wanted to fight. No matter how much money and arms you give to Afghanistan, it does not matter. So, for Taiwanese people, the key question is whether they will fight for their own freedom. 

References: 

[1] *Trump’s New World Order: Tariffs, China and Nationalism | Walter Russell Mead (4-9) 

[2] Trump’s World Order (1) 

[3] China Isn’t Defending — It’s Preparing to Strike | Walter Russell Mead (4-2025)  

[4] What Happens to Australia If Taiwan Falls? | Walter Russell Mead (4-2025)  

[5] Niall Ferguson on Ukraine, Taiwan, His War of Words with V. P. Vance (3-19) uncommon

Bill Hayton, The Invention of China, Yale University Press, 2020

[6] Robert D. Kaplan, Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific, Random House, 2015. 

[7] 韩家亮：学习历史，搞清楚台湾的归属 https://yibaochina.com/?p=243627 

[8] 韩家亮：国际关系理论与台湾地位 https://yibaochina.com/?p=243686 

[9] 韩家亮：台湾是“亚洲的柏林”吗？http://hx.cnd.org/?p=191491 

[10] 美国国防部高官提名人：失去台湾将是美国利益的灾难应集中军事力量防止台海冲突发生

[11] There's a real opportunity to restore American strength and peace, says Elbridge Colby (12-24)  

[12] *Elbridge Colby Responds to Mearsheimer on China at All-In Summit (10-2024) 

[13] The New Republican Statecraft with Elbridge Colby (10-2024)  

[14] China v. Ukraine with Elbridge Colby; TikTok's Clock; Election Meddling Is Cool Now? | GoodFellows (2024)   

[15] WSJ 9-2-2024 (short, see below) 

[16] 龙应台：台湾的时间不多了 also 任赜：《我选的总统》及三篇评论 New York Times: The Clock is Ticking for Taiwan 

[17] *The Future of Dynamic Warfare | Erik Prince (2-19-2025)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPMgzm_9K50 

07:50 - U.S. Strategy for Defending Taiwan