Trump’s World Order (1)

Jia Han
Apr 13
3 min read

Updated: Apr 14

My earlier write-ups pointed out that the rule-based world order after WWII no longer exists and is not workable. A world without any order would be Hobbersian and almost certainly leads to an abyss. Thus, we should try to establish some world order. What should or would be the new world order? Because of Trump’s position, his thinking on this issue is crucial. Trump does not talk much about his ideology or philosophy. To a large extent, Trump relies on his intuition. Walter Russell Mead’s interview on Trump’s World Order is important [1]. Niall Ferguson, Walter Russell Mead, Hal Brands, and perhaps a few are experts on world order. This is the first comprehensive commentary on Trump’s world order by a top expert. Niall Ferguson has discussed this topic a few times but not as a special focus [2,3].

Another piece of news is that Elbridge Colby has been confirmed as Pentagon policy chief [2]. The following excerpt from [2] is clear:

Colby — who has served in the Pentagon, State Department and in the office of the director of national intelligence — was instrumental in crafting a 2018 national defense strategy during Trump’s first term. The blueprint sought to reorient the military on so-called great power competition with Russia and China.

The incoming policy head has argued that the U.S. must prioritize deterring an invasion of Taiwan by China over assisting Kyiv. He has insisted Beijing’s military buildup and limited U.S. stockpiles of weapons require that trade-off, and Europe should take on the burden of helping defend Ukraine.

So Colby is a perfect fit to Trump’s grand strategy. His selection further reveals Trump’s priority.

In one earlier episode of GoodFellows, Niall Ferguson said something like Ukraine has to win and Russia has to lose. I disagreed at the time because I had already discarded the rule-based world order, regarding it as indefensible. Whether Ukraine is critical to the US and West is the main dispute. If we view the world from a rule-based world order, Ukraine must win and the US and West should fully support Ukraine. If we view the world from the great power competition, then Ukraine is less important than the Asia-Pacific. China is the major threat to the US and the world. This has been recognized since Obama. However, the past US administrations had done little in this regard. The importance of Taiwan in this rivalry is well explained by Walter Russell Mead in [1]. His discussion is concise but clear and right to the point. I totally agree with his point.

For at least a year, I have argued that the world is in a new, more dangerous period and we need a new grand strategy [5]. Will Russia continue to expand? Maybe but this will be several years down the road. China might attack Taiwan before that. I plan to discuss Russia in the future. What troubles me is “What Went Wrong with Russia”? In any event, the EU’s GDP is ten times larger than Russia’s. The EU + England should be able to handle Europe’s problems, as long as they start to do them now.

After this write-up, I saw two more pieces [6-7]. They expanded somewhat what has been discussed.

References:

[1] *Trump’s New World Order: Tariffs, China and Nationalism | Walter Russell Mead (4-9)

[2] *Conflict: Niall Ferguson on Ukraine, Taiwan, and His War of Words with V. P. Vance (3-19)

[3] *A conversation with historian Sir Niall Ferguson on Trump, tariffs and China (4-9/11)

[4] Senate confirms Trump’s controversial pick for Pentagon policy chief POLITICO

[5] (related)