Political System and Its Change
- Jia Han
- Jan 2
- 4 min read
I hope this writeup will explain why I am interested in Xu’s recent talk on South Korea’s political turmoil and why I am still quite pessimistic about China’s democratic future.
Political Order
A good survey of political systems is in Fukuyama’s two volumes [1,2]. Chapter 5 of [1] explains the formation of political order. Political order today usually refers to nation-state but chapter 5 is somewhat more general. Pay attention to a variety of causes. Another important thing to note is that religion plays a key role.
Mark Lilla’s book [3] is from a high level, i.e. philosophy and religion. He wrote: When we cast our eyes over human history, we see that every civilization known to us has been founded on religion, not on philosophy. In healthy societies, religion has helped to forge the social bond and encouraged sacrifice for the good.
Fukuyama’s two books on political order [1,2] covered thousands of years and the most important and long-lasting world civilizations: Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Chinese, and others. It also has four chapters that survey democratic transitions. The problem is that it does not consider a change of religion. I assume that this is because most literature has not studied this topic. However, this change is crucial because most religions determine or imply a political order contradicting liberal democracy. Christianity is an exception, for the New Testament does not teach governance (see Chapter 1 of [3]), and thus does not dictate any political order. This is important because it could imply secularism, potentially leading to liberal democracy. [3] provides an overview of various paths.
I have written several short web articles on religion and democracy [4-7]. They are preliminary. [2] has 3-4 chapters on democratic transitions but without consideration of religion.
Race/Religion/Politics
Does race/genes determine or play a significant role in religion? No. The New Testament explicitly rules race out.
Does race determine or play a significant role in politics? Most likely not. In a well-researched book, Niall Ferguson wrote [8,9]: Whereas ‘race’ is a matter of inherited physical characteristics, transmitted from parents to children in DNA, ‘ethnicity’ is a combination of language, custom and ritual, inculcated in the home, the school and the temple. It is perfectly possible for a genetically intermixed population to split into two or more biologically indistinguishable but culturally differentiated ethnic groups Many things from home, school, temple, work, society, and nation may change a person’s political persuasion. It is unclear whether race is a factor or not.
If you use statistics to study race, you might reach a somewhat different conclusion. But that is not reliable. It is said that“Lies, damned lies, then statistics”. You may do such research but must be careful with your interpretation.
This concludes whether there are (political) system genes [10,11]. My answer is no.
Democracy in China?
Name aside, the main concern is whether or not democratization of China is possible and/or practical. It should be clear now why I am very interested in South Korea’s example: the same civilization and similar political systems. One discouraging fact is the pivotal role the US played in South Korea’s democratization. The US has practically no leverage in the political process in Mainland China. What is worse is communism. Recently Jordan Peterson’s Bible Study video [12] quoted Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn that communism is a poisonous seed (in the biblical sense). Many still think about how to change communism but these will never change the (evil) nature of the seed and will never produce good fruits no matter what you do. Not long ago I had pondered on relevant Bible passages. I think that my conclusions are more profound [13,14].
[15] is a recent report on key Chinese scholars. 萧功秦 was the author of the New Authoritarianism which advocated a democratic path similar to South Korea. (I think that 王沪宁 is in the same school but I do not follow either closely.) This approach is unlikely to work because of the above argument.
References:
Francis Fukuyama, "The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution,"Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.
Francis Fukuyama, "Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy," Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2014.
Mark Lilla, The Stillborn God: Religion, Politics, and the Modern West, Vintage, 2008, pp.219-220.
韩家亮：民主与中华文明 http://hx.cnd.org/?p=2017
Niall Ferguson, “The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West,” Penguin Books, 2007.
《许成钢谈经论政》：韩式宫斗给中国的启示 制度基因可以改变？https://www.voachinese.com/a/7916287.html
How Ideas Grow | The Gospels (12-27-2024) (2:00-3:18 min. poisonous seed, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (索尔仁尼琴)先指出马克思主义是毒种) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg-gpvoJd6U
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