Iran & Strait Hormuz (2)

It is important, indeed crucial, to understand the Iran War in the context of Cold War II. It is part of world conflicts but only one part. A grand strategy should identify who the main adversaries are, who secondary ones are, and so on. (Not everyone agrees that the current world situation is Cold War II but some well-known scholars do [1-3]. I think that Cold War II is the best term unless you can find a better one.) Cold War II is similar to Cold War I in some aspects but there are key differences. Sometimes one might win a battle and lose the war. Sometimes one should give up local wars in order to keep strategic advantages. 

One easy-to-understand example is the Russian-Ukrainian War. Joe Biden adopted a very stupid strategy. This war pushed Russia closer to China, both economically, militarily, and international relations. (Russia and China will not be true allies but we will not explain why here.) From a grand strategy viewpoint, this is indeed very stupid. Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine are locked into a war of attrition. This war does not have great implications in a grand strategy. Yet, its casualties are huge and it wastes great resources on both sides.  

Once a grand strategy is known, one then should reexamine the current institutions to see whether or not they are appropriate in Cold War II, this includes the UN, NATO, WTO (Free Trade), etc. Although Trump so far is largely correct strategically, he is bad in one area: explain and motivate masses and other nations. This is partly due to his past experience. What I feared most was if Iran would keep nuclear capabilities or if Trump would try to spread democracy to Iran. 

We all remember GW Bush tried to spread democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan. I supported Bush then. Not only me, world renown Middle East historian Bernard Lewis also supported Bush. He thought two Middle Eastern nations, Iran and Iraq, were ripe for democracy because while the regimes were strongly anti-West, the masses favored the West [4]. We now know how these projects turned out. At present, many high ranking officials and experts push for democracy in Iran. When Trump said that the Iran War would finish in two to four weeks. I felt immediate relief. 

One sticky issue is the Strait of Hormuz. In his speech, he said that those nations in need of oil from the Strait should go and get it. I had the same idea earlier. Since America does not have major interests (<5% crude from the Strait) in keeping the Strait open, let others open it. If America tries to do it, Iran will attack and make the conflict Iran vs US. If other nations do it, Iran will be in a bind. Either Iran will be at war against most nations or give up its control. I actually thought of this idea earlier. After I gave it more thought, I rejected it. The crude oil market is a world market. If the Strait is closed, then world oil prices will remain high. This will likely ruin Republican Mid-Term chances. The idea that Trump is leaving the Strait to other nations is brilliant. Of course, he is taking a big risk. However, the alternatives have much higher risks. VDH’s comment is good [5]. Many experts also single out the Strait as the kay [6]. 

Just a note. The world oil price depends on whether or not the Strait opens without the U.S. support. This could have a profound impact on the oil price and world economy. 

References: 

1. Is There a World Order? 

2. Trump’s World Order (1)

3. A Grand Strategy for Cold War II 

4. Bernard Lewis, "The Crisis of Islam: Holy War and Unholy Terror," Modern Library, 2003, p.163. 

5. Victor Davis Hanson Discloses FRIGHTENING Information About Iran's Nuclear Plans… (4-6) 

6. Ignatius WaPo 4-1 The Iran war is a hostage crisis (wrong)