The Iran-Israel Conflicts
- Jia Han
- Oct 12, 2024
- 2 min read
This writeup is to call your attention to the recent escalation of Iran-Israel conflicts. There is a reasonable chance that it will develop into a regional war. Even worse, it could lead to World War III, although unlikely at this time.
Iran’s goal is to destroy Israel and the United States. Its slogan “Death to Israel! Death to America!” are not just words, they mean business. The key here is whether or not Iran develops nuclear weapons. If Iran has nuclear weapons, Iran’s ruling class will not hesitate to use them. Remember that Iran is a major state that espouses terrorism. Israel faces a difficult choice. Tactically, Israel did brilliantly by killing most Hezbollah leaders, pagers, walkie-talkie, bombings. After that Iran attacked Israel with about 200 missiles. If you compare with last April, you would know that Iran is getting serious. Israel will retaliate. But how and to what measure might determine whether these conflicts escalate or pause. (see the references for the details)
In retrospect, the last Trump Administration adopted a correct strategy. In a nutshell, it starved Iran of money. The root cause may be traced to the Obama Administration’s strategy. Obama tried very hard to get JCPOA. The Biden Administration tried to revive this treaty. When Russia invaded Ukraine (or maybe before that), Biden relaxed the restrictions on Iran to allow Iran to export oil to the world. Biden probably worried about the impact of the sanction of Russia on world oil price and world economy. But the problem is that Iran used this money, between 80-100B, to fund its terrorism proxies. There are other problems. ….
Robert Gates Thinks Joe Biden Hasn't Stopped Being Wrong for 40 Years. Maybe he is wrong this time also.
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