Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting Fallout

By now everyone knows the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting in the White House ended badly. The mining pact was negotiated by the US Treasure and Secretary of State [1,2]. According to them, it could have been signed 5 days ago. Trump’s commercial pact is an excellent idea. If signed and implemented, it facilitates a ceasefire. As my previous writeup indicated, this would be the best outcome, even better than a peace treaty. A peace treaty acknowledges territory concessions, a ceasefire does not. Many, including experts and scholars, do not understand a cruel reality: the previous world order is no longer valid. I may write about this later. Once Russia invaded Ukraine, the old world order dissolved. If two major superpowers do not want to observe, any treaty is only a piece of paper since there is no way to enforce it. If America and Ukraine can have a joint economic venture, Russia has to think twice before restarting another invasion. This is the best America can do. Furthermore, France and England agree to provide security. What more can you ask for? Of course their security arrangement is not as good as America’s. But that is the point so that WWIII will not easily start. 

Zelenskyy could have signed the deal many days ago [1,2]. He decides to go to Washington to sign it in the White House. He probably had decided to have a brawl in front of a world audience to get moral support. 1994 Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in order to get security guarantees from Russia, US, England (I think [3] is correct). But the problem is that that was then. If Russia/Putin goes rogue (I may discuss this later), what can you do about it? Do you want WWIII? Zelenskyy wants the US to provide security guarantees. The problem is any such guarantee immediately implies that Ukraine is fighting as a US proxy. It may escalate all the way to WWIII. In fact, Zelenskyy’s acts should exclude such a pact because he might order a battle without considering its impact. Maybe he just wants to recover one city but it has much more strategic significance. WWI started with small events. 

Additional references are listed below. About the Chinese ones, one is OK while the others quoted two scholars who have serious errors. 

References: 

[1] Treasury Secretary Bessent 'Shocked' at Trump, Zelenskiy Argument: Interview (3-1) 

[2] 'You Don't See All The Things That Led Up To This': Rubio Defends Trump After Clash With Zelensky (3-1) 

[3] Trump official warns Europe about NATO membership: 'Start paying up' (2-25) (explain previous Ukraine security and this time ) 

Related: 

1. Cuomo: Trump-Zelenskyy spat showcases ‘entirely new American posture’ | CUOMO (3-2)  

2. Zelenskyy was insulting to the US, White House official Stephen Miller (3-2)  

3. Gen. Jack Keane: I’m ‘stunned’ Zelenskyy doesn’t appreciate this (3-2) 

4. President Trump's Risky Vladimir Putin Strategy (3-2 BOR)  

5. Victor Davis Hanson: Trump’s Plan for ‘Lasting Peace’ in Ukraine, Russia (3-2) 

6. 'You Don't See All The Things That Led Up To This': Rubio Defends Trump After Clash With Zelensky (3-1) 

7. This is the most ‘stunning’ political mistake I’ve seen: Army veteran (3-1) 

8. Trump, Ukraine, and The Future of Geopolitics with Sam Harris and Niall Ferguson (3-1)  

9. *Victor Davis Hanson: Volodymyr Zelenskyy is No Winston Churchill (3-1)   

10. *Trump-Zelenskiy Meeting "Missed Opportunity": Fmr US Ambassador NATO Kurt Volker (3-1)   

11. President Trump and VP Vance Spar with Zelensky in the Oval Office, Red Scare Hosts (3-1)

12. 胡平：或许，这就是俄乌之战的结局 

13. 胡平：俄乌之战与北约东扩 (this is wrong because the two scholars are wrong)