Vance Munich Speech (1) - Change

The VP J.D. Vance’s Speech at the Munich Security Conference was very important because it signaled a major change in US policy toward Europe after WWII. Some quick takes of this speech are in [1,2]. The full-length speech is in [3]. (Notice that [3] is from a German-owned media DW and some minor edits were made.) Europeans were shocked and mostly negative. A very short summary of the response by Ian Bremmer is in [4].  German Defense Minister Pistorius’s rebuffs is in [5]. I think the Finland President’s response is more thoughtful and makes more sense [6]. [7] is a related speech by Pete Hegseth, the new Defense Minister. Any scholar or political leader in Europe knows that this talk signals a major change of the US policies. 

Many Europeans felt this change was unexpected. In fact, some big change is unavoidable. Europe is ill prepared for a war. From wiki yesterday, I got the following GDP data. Russia 2.021 trillion USD (2023) while EU $20.29 trillion (nominal) in 2025 or $29.01 trillion (PPP). You are 10 times bigger than Russia. Yet you cannot defend yourself and rely on the US? 

The world is in a very dangerous situation, the worst since the end of WWII. US military strategists estimate that the US can win one and half war. According to many experts, if Xi Jinping attacks Taiwan, the US might lose (because of manufacturing capacity, distance to the war theater, etc.). This means that the US is not ready for ONE war and now the US might fight potentially 3 wars simultaneously. Maybe you can ask Joe Biden to say “Don’t” again. Even before the Ukraine War, I think that it was a mistake for the US to be involved in the Ukraine War. The US could provide the nuclear umbrella while Europeans provide aid. This should be a general form of European security in the future. 

References:

[1] JD Vance stuns Munich with critique on European democracy | Ian Bremmer (2-15)  

[2] Peter Doocy: Everything is on the table here (2-15) 

[3] *JD Vance goes after European allies in Munich Security Conference speech | DW News

[4] JD Vance stuns Munich conference critique on European democracy | Ian Bremmer (2-15)

[5] German Defense Minister Pistorius rebuffs US VP Vance's speech | DW News (2-15) 

[6] *Finland President Stubb says advent of Trump was a 'wake-up call for Europe' (2-16) 

[7] Pete Hegseth's Shocking Message to NATO Allies Reveals Major U.S. Policy Shift (2-13)