Cold War not WWIII

I wrote The Russia- Ukraine War (10-2-2024) [1] to warn about the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine War going nuclear. It was based on a commentary from a well regarded Australian professor. What is alarming is Russia’s nuclear doctrines. One of the four is very vague and subject to interpretation. With Putin and his cronies controlling Russian media, this can be done. The question is how, not if. 

Will Putin use nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine War? According to prominent historians (Stephen Kotkin, Niall Ferguson) past history says Russian leaders who lost wars were unlikely to survive. I think Putin knows this. Thus, if Putin thinks he is losing the war, he might go nuclear.   

I would like to quote from [1] “Tulsi Gabbard’s recount is likely correct (agrees with my recollection). Russia once asked to join NATO. Bill Clinton initially said yes then said no. The reason given was that NATO needs an enemy. If Russia joins NATO, who will be the enemy?” This logic was flawed. The root cause was lack of a grand strategy after the Cold War. 

A while ago I watched the BBC TV series “Putin vs the West.” It seems to confirm the above Tulsi Gabbard’s point. I mentioned in my previous write-ups that a lack of grand strategy is a big problem. In order to design a good grand strategy it is essential to know Russia and China. George Kennan's "Long Telegram" played an instrumental role in designing a grand strategy for the Cold War because he knew the nature of the Soviet Union. Russia today is fundamentally different from the USSR.  

I will discuss possible grand strategies later. But at this time, it is essential to avoid WWIII. This was the focus of Niall Ferguson and others’ works [2-5]. At this time, to avoid potential WWIII and to rebuild deterrence to potential wars in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Middle East it is wise to stop the Russia-Ukraine War ASAP. A ceasefire (aka the Korea model. Stephen Kotkin suggested. Earlier Kissinger also) is perhaps better since Ukraine does not have to cede territories officially to Russia. Trump’s peace proposal is not too much different. 

References: 

[1] The Russia- Ukraine War (10-2-2024)

[2] Cold War I and Grand Strategy (jiahan1.wixsite.com)

[3] Cold War II: Niall Ferguson Emerging Conflict W China | Uncommon Knowledge (4-2023) 

[4] Niall Ferguson in seminar at UATX: Cold War II (3-2024) 

[5] David E. Sanger, New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West Hardcover – 1 January 2099【译丛】从一场冷战到多场冷战 - 议报