CW2 Review 1

Sep 22, 2025
2 min read

Several recent developments warrant a quick review. At a very high level, there should be a grand strategy. The important ones are from Trump, Blands, Mead, or Ferguson, respectively ([1] and references therein). All of these consider the Asia-Pacific the most important region for the US. If the US lost Asia-Pacific, then the US would be only a regional power, not a global power.

My understanding of Trump’s strategy [1-3] is to first solve the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, then strengthen the defence of Taiwan. As for now, the US and its allies might not win the defence of Taiwan because of logistics, ammunition, readiness, etc. The best scenario is that China is deterred from invasion of Taiwan. In other words, win by not firing a shot.

The last few days the Eastern front of NATO showed some worrying signs [4-5]. The Russia-Ukraine War drags on. Moreover, there are no signs that a cease-fire or peace treaty are likely, at least in the near time [6-8]. In the meantime, China shows more hawkish signs [10-11].

Walter Russell Mead gives a good assessment [14].

References:

[1] A Grand Strategy for Cold War II

[2] Trump’s World Order (1)

[3] Trump vs. Putin

[4] *Gen. Jack Keane: Putin doesn't want war with NATO (9-20)

[5] *Ian Bremmer: Russia is just ‘probing,’ doesn’t want World War III (9-21)

[6] *A Conversation with Keith Kellogg, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine (9-14)

[7] Turning Points: Kyiv, Kirk, Kimmel, and the Sundance Kid | GoodFellows (9-20) (NF visit)

[8] HSF 2025: Interview with General David Petraeus (9-21)

[9] Russia says there will be a 'PAUSE in negotiations' (9-14) (Dan Hoffman)

[10] WSJ 9-18 China Hardens Military Stance Against U.S. With Nuclear Weapons and Tough Talk