Ukraine War (2-17-2025)

This write-up follows Is There a World Order? and Vance Munich Speech - Change [1]. There was some rule-based world order after WWII. Vance’s speech [1] signals some fundamental changes, for which there are many. To get some ideas, refer to the references listed in [1]. In addition, [2] is an interview with David Sanger. He is a senior journalist at NY Times and well respected. He wrote a book on (something like) the New Cold War (a commentary in Chinese in [3]). Niall Ferguson was one of the earliest proponents of Cold War II [4,5]. The key strategy is similar to Cold War I, i.e. prevent it from deteriorating into WWIII. Such a strategy is obvious since WWIII is likely to be nuclear, which if not killing all human beings, at least will be an unimaginable disaster. 

Although Niall Ferguson got the above strategy correct, he still thinks that we cannot let Russia win. The problem is as I discussed in [6] the US and its allies do not have sufficient military power to do this. Thanks to Joe Biden, the US has lost almost all its deterrence. The best strategy now is to establish peace in Ukraine and the Middle East followed by better preparation for a potential war in the Asia Pacific, mainly China. 

Henry Kissinger was first to propose to have some negotiated settlement. When I heard it I was not impressed since Russia started the war and must be stopped and punished. Sometime later (I think through Hoover’s series Uncommon Knowledge) Stephen Kotkin argued for the Korea model, i.e. ceasefire instead of peace treaty. Stephen Kotkin is the foremost scholar on Soviet Union/Russia. His suggestion seems to be the best to me. 

Let us now take a top-view on the world. By default, the world has no order and it could fall into a Hobbesian world [7], which almost certainly followed WWIII and likely the end of human beings. We have to wait and see what strategy that Trump adopts and what world order, if any, remains. 

References:

[1] Vance Munich Speech - Change

[2] *David Sanger: Dispatches from Munich (2-17) 

[3] 【译丛】从一场冷战到多场冷战 Michael Kimmage, From Cold War to Cold Wars

[4] Niall Ferguson in seminar at UATX: Cold War II (3-2024) 

[5] Cold War II: Niall Ferguson Emerging Conflict W China | Uncommon Knowledge (4-2023) 

[6] Is There a World Order? 

[7] Is a World Order Possible? (jiahan1.wixsite.com) 

Related: 

• General David Petraeus: Dispatches from Munich (2-17)  

•  “Strong Men Make Peace” - Viktor Orban Reacts to Pete Hegseth’s Ukraine Speech (2-15) 

• Trump's Russia-Ukraine Negotiations (2-16) BOR

• *Bill O'Reilly's BRUTAL Assessment of Vladimir Putin Why Trump is Negotiating With Evil  (2-14) 

• Bill O'Reilly predicts Trump and Putin will 'get a ceasefire' in Ukraine | CUOMO 

• "The US will do less and we have to do more" German Defense Minister Pistorius | DW News (2-15)  

• Peace Through Weakness in Ukraine? (WSJ op 2-15) 

• Scholz rebukes JD Vance, reaffirms support for Ukraine | DW News (2-15) 

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